Aluminum · Nickel · Titanium

LME snapshot & early 2026 trends — what global buyers need to know

Market update: premiums, supply & aerospace demand

If you're sourcing aluminum, nickel, or titanium alloys, the market has been anything but quiet. Here's what's happening right now—and what it means for your next purchase.

Aluminum: Premiums Are Climbing

What's happening: Global producers are asking Japanese buyers for $220–250/ton in Q2 premiums—13–28% higher than the current quarter. This follows a massive 127% jump in Q1 premiums, signaling growing supply tightness.

Why it matters: Japan's quarterly premiums set the benchmark for Asia. Even with domestic demand still soft, producers are betting on post-fiscalyear inventory rebuilding. LME aluminum sits at $3,107/ton (cash) as of Feb 25.

The tension: Buyers are pushing back, calling current offers too high given patchy demand recovery. Negotiations are ongoing with majors like Rio Tinto and South32.

    Takeaway: Expect upward pressure on Asian aluminum premiums. Locking in Q2 volumes soon could pay off.

Nickel: Supply Jitters Return

What's happening: Two stories are driving nickel right now:

1. Indonesia supply concerns – A tailings dam incident at a HPAL smelter has put the market on edge. Meanwhile, RKAB quota approvals are progressing, but approved volumes are smaller than requested, keeping supply visibility murky.

2. Ore prices firming – Indonesian nickel ore premiums have climbed to $35–39/ton, up from $28 recently, reflecting tightening availability ahead of Ramadan.

The counterweight: LME nickel inventories continue building—$17,750/ton cash price as of Feb 25—capping upside. Demand from stainless mills is recovering slowly, with March restarts expected but margins tight.

    Takeaway: Nickel is caught between firming ore costs and high inventory. Expect volatility — don't assume spot availability will hold.

Titanium: Aerospace Optimism Building

What's happening: The titanium market is showing signs of life. US TC4/5 ingot prices have climbed to a five-month high of $10–11.10/lb, driven by aerospace and defense demand.

The driver: Boeing's 737 MAX and 787 production ramp-ups are beating expectations, injecting optimism across the supply chain. Some producers are already fully booked for H1 orders, signaling confidence in H2 pricing.

The catch: Excess melting capacity and high inventory levels at OEMs are capping price upside. European spot liquidity remains thin, with TC4/5 ingot steady at €19.50–21.50/kg.

Domestic side: Chinese titanium markets are seeing firmer sentiment heading into March, with demand expected to improve as downstream factories resume full operations.

    Takeaway: Aerospace-driven demand is real, but don't expect a straight line up. If you're buying for aviation, lead times may start stretching.

One final thought

Across all three metals, a common thread emerges: supply visibility is deteriorating while demand slowly recovers. The era of assuming you can always find spot material at yesterday's price is over.

Need help navigating these markets? We track these movements daily and can help you time your purchases smarter — not just cheaper.